Slowly but surely, the Latin American carriers are restoring their pre-pandemic capacity levels. According to OAG, the region is approximately 25% below the number of flights it offered in 2019, above the world trends. Some operators have recovered faster and are already over pre-COVID levels, like Viva Aerobus, while others are lagging, like Avianca. So, let’s take a look at the Latin American airline’s recovery. 

Flights are coming back 

According to Cirium’s database, the airlines operating domestically and internationally in the Latin American region have scheduled 192,171 flights in October 2021. That number is a 27.2% decrease compared to October 2019. Nonetheless, the capacity in these flights has recovered faster since it is only 22.9% below its pre-pandemic numbers. 

Despite its ongoing recovery, LATAM Airlines Group has regained its status as Latin America’s largest carrier. The airline is scheduling 31,602 flights during the month. According to a statement provided by the carrier, it is operating at 56% currently. 

The Brazilian carrier Azul Linhas Aereas is the second-largest carrier in the region by the number of flights. It has scheduled 22,077 flights, an 82.6% recovery compared to 2019. In Brazil, Azul has had the best comeback in almost every category, compared with GOL and LATAM so far. 

Aeromexico is scheduling 14,057 flights in October, an 82.6% recovery as well. Then, it comes Volaris, the Mexican LCC, which is currently planning 13,811 flights, a 19% increase compared to 2019 levels. Both Volaris and Viva Aerobus (in seventh place, with 9,098 flights) are already over their pre-COVID numbers. 

Latin America’s most important routes

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin America’s most important route was Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo in Brazil. It had 3,710 flights per month, offering over 563,000 seats, according to Cirium. In the second place, there was the route Bogota-Medellin, followed by three Mexican routes, from Mexico City to Cancun, Monterrey, and Guadalajara. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed this listing. According to our research, Mexico-Cancun is currently Latin America’s most important route. In October, it is offering 2,460 flights (all by Aeromexico, Volaris, and Viva Aerobus), a 94.6% recovery compared to the pre-pandemic levels. This route has almost wholly recovered despite losing one of its leading operators, Interjet. 

After Mexico-Cancun, the second-busiest route in Latin America is Bogota-Medellin (with a 68% recovery). Then it comes to the route Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paulo but only has recovered 52% of its pre-pandemic capacity.  

The top-5 is completed with Mexico-City-Monterrey (1,664 scheduled flights, with a recovery of 64%) and Bogota-Cali with 1,660 flights (74% recovery). 

A look at the Latin American airline’s recovery - finances

Worldwide, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects net industry losses to be approximately US$201 billion between 2020 and 2022. 

Last week, during IATA’s AGM, Willie Walsh said that airlines “have dramatically cut costs and adapted their business to whatever opportunities were available. That will see the $137.7 billion loss of 2020 reduce to $52 billion this year. And that will further reduce to $12 billion in 2022. We are well past the deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path to recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again.”

In Latin America, IATA expects demand to end 2021 around half of what it was two years ago. The carriers in Latin America will have net losses of around US$5.6 billion in 2021 and US$3.7 billion in 2022. IATA said, 

“Most of the region’s markets are open, but with some notable exceptions (Argentina, for example). The strength of the US-Latin American market will be a major contributing factor to improvement. Significant restructuring costs as the region’s carriers adjust to the new business realities will weigh on financial performance, keeping the region in a collective loss.” 

Earlier this week, LATAM released its five-year business plan as part of its financial reorganization. The South American airline group is forecasting when it will recover the profitability and how the market will behave in the coming years. Let’s review LATAM’s Chapter 11 Business Plan. 

Back to profitability

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, LATAM Airlines Group had revenues of more than US$10 billion and a sound business in South America. Nevertheless, the crisis has overthrown everything and LATAM had to begin a Chapter 11 bankruptcy process in the United States. 

The carrier has moved forward, and now it expects it will return to 2019’s profitability by 2024. Moreover, the company expects an operating margin (EBIT) of 11.2% in 2026, which would be the highest since 2010. 

Total revenues are projected to increase 13% by 2026, with passenger revenues growing 8% and cargo revenues increasing 59% compared to 2019, said the airline in a statement. 

All of this will be achieved because LATAM was able to reduce its cost base by US$900 million annually. The company also expects to improve its CASK ex-fuel by 3.3 cents in 2024. 

LATAM Airlines Group CEO, Roberto Alvo, said, 

“We will emerge from this process as a highly competitive and sustainable group of airlines, with a very efficient cost structure, all the while maintaining the unparalleled network and connectivity that LATAM offers in all the markets it serves.” 

LATAM new financing offers

The South American giant has also received several offers from stakeholders, which would provide more than US$5 billion of new funds. 

Each proposal contemplates raising the money through the issuance of new debt and equity. In consequence, if approved and implemented, it would result in the substantial dilution of existing shares. In the last few weeks, Avianca’s shares have been in decline due to this same reason. 

LATAM is also considering getting a possible additional third debtor-in-possession financing worth US$750 million. This money would come in addition to the existing US$1.3 billion Tranche A facility and the US$1.15 billion Tranche C facility, none of which are fully drawn. 

The airline said, 

“Given the currently favorable market conditions, LATAM is soliciting interest from potential lenders in providing a Tranche B Facility and will consider proposals to determine whether it is able to borrow funds at a more competitive rate than under the existing Tranche A and C facilities.”

What about LATAM’s demand recovery?

LATAM’s Chapter 11 business plan also included a vision of the demand recovery and operational projections through 2026. 

The Group forecasts a return to pre-pandemic capacity by 2024 and a growth of 7% by 2026, compared to 2019. LATAM expects domestic markets to recovery by 2022 and international ones by 2024. 

LATAM Airlines Brazil would lead the Group’s recovery. It is currently working at 77% of its pre-pandemic capacity, and LATAM expects to surpass 2019 levels earlier next year. 

Meanwhile, the domestic markets in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile are already at 72% of their pre-pandemic capacities. 

Finally, LATAM is looking to extend the period of exclusivity to file a plan of reorganization through October 15, 2021. Additionally, the voting period would go all the way through December 15. LATAM and Aeromexico are facing similar timelines at the moment. 

Originally published here.